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The U.S. economy probably notched up another bumper month of hiring in April, tallying with other reports that suggest growth momentum is building in the wake of the coronavirus crisis.
Payrolls may have risen by 978,000, according to the median estimate of economists, above the 916,000 gain in March, while unemployment is seen falling below 6%. The Labor Department report on Friday will wrap up another busy week of data that also includes April surveys of manufacturers and service providers.
Covid-19 vaccination rates continue to climb, while the Biden administration is eager to keep the federal spending spigots wide open to add more fuel to the economic recovery. Last week, the government said the economy expanded at an annualized 6.4% in the first quarter, spurred by the second-fastest rate of household spending since the 1960s.
Such demand, which is starting to invigorate activity in the pandemic-restrained service sector, is prompting employers to beef up headcounts. Manufacturers alone are projected to have added about 60,000 in April, the most in 10 months.
Even with an almost 1 million increase in April employment, payrolls will be about 7 million shy of their pre-pandemic level, a reason Federal Reserve policy makers kept their benchmark interest rate near zero at last week’s meeting.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“The ‘jobs deficit’ relative to pre-pandemic levels remains roughly as wide as it was coming out of the recession of 2007-09. For this reason, Powell has expressed the desire to see a ‘string’ of jobs reports similar to March to feel confident that the economy is on a durable trajectory. An April gain in the vicinity of 1 million is a start, to be sure, but far short of what centrists on the FOMC might consider a ‘string.’”
--Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva and Andrew Husby. For full analysis, click here
Elsewhere, central bank decisions in Brazil, Turkey and the U.K. will be among the highlights of the week. Canada also publishes its April jobs report.
Central Bank Rate Decisions This Week
Click here for what happened last week and below is our wrap of what is coming up in the global economy.
Asia
PMI data from around the region should indicate how Asia’s factories are ticking over in response to the improvement in global demand. Korean CPI may accelerate further, though higher oil prices compared with last year’s nadir may overstate the strength of the overall trend.
Japan will emerge from its Golden Week holiday on Thursday with minutes from the BOJ’s March meeting that will offer more details of the thinking behind stimulus framework changes made after a review.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday and is set to keep its stimulus settings unchanged, then releases updated economic forecasts on Friday that will need to acknowledge the brighter employment outlook while dispelling any notions of tapering. Thailand sets interest rates on Wednesday and Malaysia on Thursday -- both are widely seen as on hold for now.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
A cluster of monetary decisions from around the fringes of Europe’s single currency area may prove to be the main highlights of the coming week.
Most prominent among them will be the Bank of England, which is likely to raise growth forecasts on Thursday after the region’s most advanced vaccination program put Britain on course to reopen much of the economy in coming months. That may presage a future decision to taper monetary stimulus later this year.
Covid Relief
More than 20% of people in the EU have received at least one dose of vaccine
Source: Bloomberg’s Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker
Note: Population coverage accounts for the number of doses required for each vaccine administered
The same day in Norway, attention is likely to focus on whether the Norges Bank will signal a rate increase as soon as in September to cool the economy’s house-price rally.
Turkey’s central bank is expected to leave its benchmark unchanged for a second meeting. Rising inflation and the promise to keep rates above price gains will prevent the central bank from easing as the country’s political leadership desires.
Policy makers in eastern Europe also seem hesitant to raise borrowing costs. In Poland no change is expected despite a pickup in inflation, while in the Czech Republic, officials have already said rate hikes forecast for this year may come later than planned.
Within the euro region itself, speeches by European Central Bank policy makers are likely to draw most attention, with President Christine Lagarde among several officials scheduled to make public comments.
In South Africa, Moody’s Investors Service is scheduled to publish a ratings review on Friday after downgrading the country to Ba2 with a negative outlook in November. The ratings company said in February it expects a slower pace of fiscal consolidation and wider deficits than the government, and that risks to debt affordability remain elevated.
Latin America
Chile’s economic outlook has taken a turn for the better with March’s year-on-year activity indicator on Monday likely to show brisk growth.
Colombia on Monday posts the minutes of its April 30 central bank meeting, where policy makers kept the key rate at 1.75%, followed by April inflation data Wednesday.
Lines of Communication
Brazil central bank has hit the median estimate at 14 of last 17 meetings
Source: Banco Central do Brasil, Bloomberg
Note: Key rate for May 5 decision = median estimate
Brazil on Wednesday reports March industrial production data before all attention shifts to the meeting of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, known as “Copom.” Since 1999, the institution’s decisions have matched survey medians about 75% of the time, but under current President Roberto Campos Neto, expectations and outcomes have tallied more often. This time, a rate increase to 3.5% is foreseen by economists.
On Friday, Brazil’s March retail sales report may show significant weakness, while Chile’s April report on inflation should see the annual rate nudge just over the 3% target.
Possible Cooling
Mexico’s mid- and full month inflation readings may be cresting near 6%
Sources: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Bloomberg
Note: April’s monthly (YoY), bi-weekly (YoY) figures are median estimates
Ending the week, Mexico serves up the last consumer price data before next week’s central bank meeting, where Banxico is expected to hold at 4%.
— With assistance by Alaa Shahine, Malcolm Scott, Cagan Koc, Robert Jameson, and Theophilos Argitis
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