It’s often interesting to follow forecast models about a week ahead. At this focus range, finer details are often foggy, but large-scale trends often carry credibility.
Next week is an interesting case in point.
Three major forecast solutions from the Canadian, European and American models all agree that a low-pressure system will likely bring rain to the Upper Midwest. There are still the expected forecast model differences on the storm track, temperatures and precipitation distribution. But widespread rainfall looks increasingly likely next week.
The European model shows a low-pressure system near the Minnesota-Dakotas border late next Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible near the frontal zone.
European model (ECMWF) forecast for 7 p.m. Tuesday, April 27.
ECMWF via pivotal weather
70s in the warm sector?
Meteorologists call the zone ahead of low-pressure systems and south of the warm front the warm sector. It’s pretty typical with April weather systems to have temperatures in the 70s, or even 80s in the warm sector as systems approach the Upper Midwest.
Monday’s European model suggests 70s from the Twin Cities southward by late next Tuesday afternoon. Note how temperatures hover in the 40s and 50s north of the warm sector across northern Minnesota.
European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 7 p.m. Tuesday, April 27.
ECMWF via pivotal weather
The Canadian model favors a more northward track, with even warmer temperatures. My view is this probably pushes warmth too far north, but time will tell.
Canadian model temperature output 7 p.m. Tuesday, April 27.
Environment Canada via pivotal weather
This is one reason why precise low-pressure tracks are so critical to eventual temperature forecasts.
Heavy rainfall potential?
Another element to watch next week is the potential for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. The European model suggests an inch of rain for many with some local 2-inch amounts in parts of northern Minnesota.
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output next week
ECMWF via pivotal weather
NOAA’s GFS model is more aggressive with rainfall and cranks out a multi-inch rainfall swath including the Twin Cities area.
NOAA GFS precipitation next week
NOAA via pivotal weather
It will be interesting to watch how next week’s system unfolds. I wouldn’t bet the farm just yet, but there’s a growing chance of warmer air, possibly heavy rain, and thunder next Tuesday into Wednesday.
Stay tuned.
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