The Big 12 ran through Norman, Oklahoma – again. Oklahoma won its fifth straight Big 12 championship in 2019, this time upending Baylor in the title game.
Looking forward to 2020, the Big 12 promises to look different yet also very much the same. The Sooners remain the heavy favorite while Baylor is likely to take a step back. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State and Iowa State are positioned to make a run.
This is a look back at how the Big 12 fared this past season, while spinning things forward to 2020 for each member of the conference. For reference, the 2019 assessment is split into three categories: Exceeded Expectations, Met Expectations, Below Expectations.
Oklahoma (12-2): Met Expectations
Oklahoma did what it’s done throughout Lincoln Riley’s tenure: Win the Big 12. I’m sure some will cite the Sooners’ awful Peach Bowl loss to LSU. But I would strongly argue Riley just led his least-talented team to the playoff in spite of some glaring deficiencies. Thus, we split the difference.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 9 nationally
2020 Expectations: Welcome to the Spencer Rattler era. The QB battle in Norman will likely be stretched out for the sake of drama (and player retention), but this is Rattler’s job to lose. The top-rated quarterback in the 2018 class should continue Oklahoma’s torrid production at the spot. Honestly, he’ll raise Oklahoma’s ceiling against elite competition because he can do more as a passer than Jalen Hurts. There’s plenty of skill talent around Rattle even without CeeDee Lamb – Charleston Rambo, Jadon Haselwood, UCLA transfer Theo Howard. Plus, the Sooners return all five offensive line starters. Defensively, Oklahoma should be better in Year 2 under Alex Grinch. Losing star linebacker Kenneth Murray hurts. But eight other starters return, and they’re adding a defense-focused 2020 class. The path in the Big 12 remains friendly as well. Oklahoma will be a heavy favorite to win a sixth straight Big 12 championship.
Baylor (11-3): Exceeded Expectations
Take the pulse of those around the Baylor program in late July, and you would’ve heard whispers about possible Big 12 contention. Maybe the Big 12 would eat itself alive and the Bears could sneak into the title game at 9-3. But few (if anybody) saw an 11-1 regular season on the horizon. The Bears exceeded any and all expectations coming an overtime away from a Big 12 championship.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 53 nationally
2020 Expectations: It’s really tough to place Baylor. The Bears deserve to be ranked, Matt Rhule or not. Almost the entirety of the offense is back, including rising senior QB Charlie Brewer. But there are questions about how Dave Aranda will construct his staff and how he’ll fare as a first-time head coach. It’s also worth wondering what the Bears defense will look with just three returning starters. Baylor isn’t exactly going to drop off the map – Rhule recruited and developed the roster far too well for that – but the Bears will enter the season projected to finish fourth or fifth in the Big 12 at best.
Texas (8-5): Below Expectations
Texas’ Week 2 clash with LSU proved to be an inflection point. LSU’s victory in Austin sparked the Tigers’ national title run. The Longhorns’ loss provided false hope, showing what was possible but also the difference between Texas and a true national title contender. Injuries hurt Texas last season. But that’s not an excuse. Status: Not back.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 10 nationally
2020 Expectations: Texas returns a senior quarterback, Sam Ehlinger, who will be among the best in the country at his position. The Longhorns bring back six starters around him, including left tackle Sam Cosmi and a running back room that will transform from injury-riddled weakness to strength. Defensively, the Longhorns can’t get any worse. They bring back eight starters from a unit with plenty of talent and, following an awful 2019 campaign, some experience to match. Could Texas implode? Yes. Tom Herman, with new coordinators on both sides of the ball, could end up with a scorching hot seat instead of playoff hype. But the ceiling for this Longhorns team is also extremely high. LSU in Week 2 will be the ultimate measuring stick.
Oklahoma State (8-5): Below Expectations
The Cowboys had an OK season. It could’ve been much better. They lost a game in Austin they shouldn’t have and had disappointing results against Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas A&M. Losing Spencer Sanders and Tylan Wallace midseason didn’t help. But this is still a team that fell short of its conference title game aspirations.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 41 nationally
2020 Expectations: This is a CFB Playoff sleeper. The Cowboys pulled a coup by getting star running back Chuba Hubbard AND elite wide receiver Tylan Wallace to return for the 2020 season. Throw in Sanders, a promising redshirt sophomore quarterback, and the Cowboys have the foundation of what could be the best offense in college football. The defense should only continue to improve in Year 3 under Jim Knowles, especially when you consider 10 year-end starters are back. The non-conference schedule (Oregon State, Tulsa, Western Illinois) sets the Cowboys up for a fast start.
Kansas State (8-5): Exceeded Expectations
Nothing is more difficult in college football than following a legend. Chris Klieman did an incredible job doing so in Year 1. Bill Synder means so much to Kansas State. Nobody would’ve faulted Klieman if he struggled his first season. Instead, he added three wins to the Wildcats’ 2018 total.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 49 nationally
2020 Expectations: Eight offensive and six defensive starters off the team’s year-end depth chart depart, including 80 percent of the offensive line and three of four starters along the team’s defensive front. There are a few important pieces returning, including quarterback Skylar Thompson and standout defensive end Wyatt Hubert (12.5 TFLs, 7 sacks). The non-conference schedule (Buffalo, North Dakota, Vanderbilt) allows K-State to get off to a fast start as does a schedule that saves Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor for November. Klieman built a reputation as a developer at North Dakota State. This season will test that prowess on the FBS level.
Iowa State (7-6): Below Expectations
Yes, a winning season in Ames is a disappointment. Iowa State could’ve easily been Baylor in 2019. The Cyclones lost one-possession games to Iowa, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Contenders win those games. That’s what Iowa State hopes to be, and those are the raised expectations Matt Campbell has created.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 45 nationally
2020 Expectations: I’ve seen Iowa State ranked as high as the top 10 in some too-early-Top 25 rankings. That’s really aggressive. This could be a Top 25-level team again. The Cyclones bring back eight defensive starters and star quarterback Brock Purdy. At the same time … 80 percent of the starting o-line departs as do important receivers Deshaunte Jones (76 catches, 877 yards) and La’Michael Pettway (55 catches, 676 yards). It’d really help Purdy if wide receiver Tarique Milton (722 yards, 20.6 YPC) and running back Breece Hall (897 yards, 9 TD) develop into stars. That and improved o-line play would elevate Iowa State from fringe Top 25 team to legitimate contender.
West Virginia (5-7): Met Expectations
Vegas pegged West Virginia as a five-win team in 2019, and that’s exactly where the Mountaineers ended up. The middle of the season showed to be a bit shaky, especially given the Mountaineers’ inconsistent quarterback play. But West Virginia finished the year on a hot streak beating Kansas State and TCU with a one-possession loss to Oklahoma State sandwiched between.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 39 nationally
2020 Expectations: There’s a chance for West Virginia to be much better in 2020. Fifteen-plus starters project to return from the year-end depth chart. That includes star defensive tackle Darius Stills, who established himself as one of the Big 12’s most feared defenders last season. The Mountaineers could become a top 40 defense and it wouldn’t be a shock. The question, sort of surprisingly under Neal Brown, is the offense. Jarret Doege does give the Mountaineers some hope. Doege played well late in the year (818 yards, 7 TDs, 65.8 CMP%) when he took over as starting quarterback. Expand that play out over a full season and find any sort of running game – the Mountaineers averaged 2.6 yards per carry – and West Virginia is a bowl lock.
TCU (5-7): Below Expectations
TCU suffered only its third losing season since 2005. That’s not Gary Patterson’s standard, especially when you consider the Horned Frogs lost six one-possession games. Those are the nail-biters Patterson-coached teams always won in the past.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 31 nationally
2020 Expectations: Any too-early Top 25 projection featuring TCU is banking on rising sophomore QB Max Duggan (2,077 yards, 15 TDs, 10 INTs, 53.4 CMP%) taking a step and the return of Doug Meacham helping to spark a stagnant Horned Frogs offense. That’s possible. But there’s also a lot departing from this team. Only five offensive and five defensive starters return from the year-end depth chart. Losses include elite receiver Jalen Reagor, all-conference defensive tackle Ross Blacklock and almost the entirety of the Big 12’s best secondary. TCU has never posted back-to-back losing seasons under Patterson, so the Horned Frogs project to at least take a jump. But there are a lot of questions for this team to answer in order to join the contention conversation.
Texas Tech (4-8): Below Expectations
Kliff Kingsbury received a lot of criticism late in his Red Raider career, but he left Matt Wells a roster with plenty of talent. Vegas placed the Red Raiders’ over/under win total at six. They fell short of that thanks to five losses by three points or fewer.
2020 Recruiting Class: No. 46 nationally
2020 Expectations: Disappointing losses hurt Texas Tech’s 2019 evaluation, but they do, in a weird way, provide hope for the future. Generally, teams often have those close losses even out over time. That could well mean a jump of two or three wins for the Red Raiders in 2020. It helps that 14 year-end starters project to return. That includes promising junior quarterback Alan Bowman and almost the Red Raiders’ entire receiving group. The defense brings back the majority of its starters, too. But replacing linebacker Jordyn Brooks (108 tackles, 20 TFLs) and safety Douglas Coleman (8 INTs) will be very difficult. Texas Tech’s non-conference schedule (UTEP, Alabama State, Arizona) provides the opportunity for a hot start.
Kansas (3-9): Met Expectations
Kansas’ win total wasn’t technically better than 2018, but the Jayhawks looked like a completely different team under Les Miles. The offense (107 to 60th) improved in a big way, and the Jayhawks won a road game against a Power Five team for the first time since 2008. Kansas’ three-win effort tied for its best win total since 2009.
2020 Class: No. 50 Kansas nationally
2020 Expectations: It’d help Kansas if it found a quarterback to replace Carter Stanley. Whoever ends up as Kansas’ QB will have some talent around him with running back Pooka Williams (1,042 yards), receiver Andrew Parchment and the play calling of offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon. The defense must replace six year-end starters, including its leader in tackles (Mike Lee), tackles for loss (Najee Stevens-McKenzie) and interceptor (Stevens-McKenzie). The 2020 non-conference schedule gives Kansas a chance for a 3-0 start with games against New Hampshire, Boston College and at Coastal Carolina.
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Conference Breakdown: Looking at the Big 12 heading into 2020 - 247Sports
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