Even without doing much this offseason, Los Angeles Dodgers were viewed as one of the favorites to win the 2020 World Series. Those chances got even better Tuesday night when they reportedly completed a long-rumored trade for star Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts. They also acquired veteran lefty David Price in a deal that involved three teams (full details here).
The Dodgers have a strong argument to make, at least on paper, as the best team in baseball. So what do the projections say about their World Series chances with Betts joining Cody Bellinger and company?
Our friends at SportsLine are here to answer that question. The Sportsline projection model now predicts L.A. will win more than 106 games next season, and the team's chances of winning it all for the first time since 1988 went up more than five percent. The Dodgers have a 45.5 percent chance to win the National League pennant in 2020 and a 29.2 percent chance to win the World Series, according to Sportsline.
Here are the updated projections:
| WINS | WIN % | NL WEST % | POSTSEASON % | nLCS % | WORLD SERIES % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
With Betts |
106.6 |
65.8 |
95.4 |
99.6 |
45.5 |
29.2 |
|
Without Betts |
102.7 |
63.4 |
89.9 |
98.2 |
41.1 |
24.0 |
|
Change |
+3.9 |
+2.4 |
+5.5 |
+1.4 |
+4.4 |
+5.4 |
Los Angeles will have two former MVPs in its outfield in 2020. Betts will likely take over at right field (although he can play any spot in the outfield) and Cody Bellinger will man center field. Betts also adds a right-handed batter to the Dodgers' left-handed heavy lineup. There's an added benefit of adding Price to their rotation after they lost two left-handed starters, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, in free agency.
Last season, the Dodgers finished 106-56 and took home their seventh consecutive NL West crown, but lost in Game 5 of the NLDS to the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals. The Dodgers and Yankees will enter the 2020 season as favorites to reach the Fall Classic, as New York made its own huge splash -- signing Gerrit Cole to a record-breaking deal -- earlier this winter in hopes to get over the hump in October.
After the Betts move, sports book William Hill listed the Yankees as slight World Series favorites over the Dodgers. Here are the teams with the best chances of winning the 2020 World Series, per William Hill:
- Yankees: 3/1
- Dodgers: 7/2
- Astros: 8/1
- Braves: 12/1
- Cardinals: 15/1
- Nationals: 17/1
- Mets: 17/1
- Phillies: 18/1
- Angels: 20/1
- Twins: 20/1
Boston, meanwhile, now has 40/1 World Series odds. The loss of both Betts and Price hit the Red Sox pretty hard. The club, which was projected to win 95 games before shipping out its best player and a quality starter, saw decreases all across the board. Boston's projected win total dipped by six after the trade, and the team saw its postseason chances go from 70.8 percent down to 40 percent. From SportsLine:
| WINS | WIN % | AL EAST % | POSTSEASON % | ALCS % | WORLD SERIES % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
With Betts |
94.8 |
58.5 |
27.0 |
70.8 |
7.9 |
3.4 |
|
Without Betts |
88.6 |
54.7 |
9.8 |
40.0 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
|
Change |
-6.2 |
-3.8 |
-17.2 |
-30.8 |
-4.5 |
-2.3 |
The Red Sox have been in a disarray of sorts since they beat the Dodgers for the World Series title in 2018. Last season, the club missed out on the postseason for the first time since 2015, finishing behind the Yankees and Rays in the AL East. The Red Sox fired general manager Dave Dombrowski in September. This winter, the club was accused of using its video replay room to steal signs during the 2018 championship run. The allegations resulted in an investigation from Major League Baseball, which is still ongoing.
Manager Alex Cora was heavily implicated in MLB's report on the Astros' cheating scandal, and it's likely he'll be implicated again in the league's report on the Red Sox. As a result, Boston and Cora agreed to part ways last month. The Red Sox have still not named a replacement for Cora. Whoever takes over in Boston will inherit a roster that took a significant blow Tuesday night.
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February 06, 2020 at 05:44AM
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